jueves, octubre 02, 2014

¿quièn ganarà ironman Kona ? (van lierde, mckenzie, kienle, cunmana) , (ò raña, eneko, del corral ?)



CUÉNTANOS TU TRUCO TRIATLÉTICO Y GANA ESTE CASCO SPIUK AIZEA
Si practicas triatlón, seguro que tienes algún “truco” personal a la hora de entrenar cualquiera de los tres deportes, para el día de la competición o para arreglar/conservar el material necesario. Puede ser la forma en que preparas y llevas los geles en carrera, cómo y donde guardar los objetos personales mientras entrenas, algún truco para colocarte el dorsal, cómo reparar cualquier elemento de tu bicicleta o fabricar tú mismo algún complemento, cómo solventar un inconveniente que te pueda surgir en carrera… en definitiva, cualquier consejo o truco práctico relacionado con este deporte. Desde la redacción de TRIATLÓN te invitamos a que lo compartas con nosotros y con todos nuestros lectores. Por hacerlo, podrás ganar un casco Spiuk Aizea como el de la foto -el modelo que utiliza Iván Raña en sus competiciones de media y larga distancia-, valorado en cerca de 200 euros.
Escríbenos un mensaje (de no más de 10-12 líneas de texto) contándonos tu truco o consejo triatlético a triatlon@mpib.es, poniendo en el Asunto “Trucos de Triatlón”, y no olvides indicarnos tu nombre y apellidos y localidad donde resides. Puedes escribirnos hasta el domingo 12 de octubre. Los mejores trucos serán publicados en el número de Noviembre de nuestra revista, y entre los que consideremos más útiles y ocurrentes sortearemos el Spiuk Aizea. Si además nos adjuntas una foto que ilustre tu truco tendrás más opciones de que lo publiquemos y de que puedas ganar este gran casco. ¡Esperamos vuestros tri-consejos!

https://www.facebook.com/revistatriatlon?fref=nf
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maleta para hawaii
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clasificaciòn 2013

1 8:12:29 Frederik Van Lierde Belgium 0:51:02 2:18 4:25:35 2:16 2:51:18
2 8:15:19 Luke McKenzie Australia 0:51:17 1:59 4:22:25 2:18 2:57:20
3 8:19:24 Sebastian Kienle Germany 0:54:13 1:49 4:22:33 2:14 2:58:35
4 8:21:46 James Cunnama South Africa 0:51:13 1:45 4:34:21 1:50 2:52:37
5 8:22:25 Tim O'Donnell United States 0:51:04 2:05 4:35:37 2:32 2:51:07
6 8:23:43 Iván Raña Spain 0:51:06 1:55 4:40:34 2:14 2:47:54
7 8:24:09 Tyler Butterfield Bermuda 0:51:24 1:46 4:30:10 2:27 2:58:22
8 8:25:38 Bart Aernouts Belgium 0:57:26 1:46 4:39:46 2:37 2:44:03
9 8:26:32 Timo Bracht Germany 0:51:21 1:50 4:34:46 2:28 2:56:07
10 8:31:13 Faris Al-Sultan Germany 0:51:19 1:55 4:29:56 2:17 3:05:46





Kona Trend: Men’s Winner Top Four The Previous Year
By Bethany MavisPublished Oct 1, 201

Van Lierde finished third in 2012 before winning in 2013.
If history tells us anything, there are four men who have the best odds at taking the 2014 Kona crown.

Last year we wrote about a trend in the professional men’s race at the Ironman World Championship that we noticed, and it continues to hold true after the 2013 race. In 16 out of the last 17 years, the men’s winner at the Ironman World Championship finished in the top four the previous year. The only exception to that rule was when Germany’s Normann Stadler won in 2006 after a DNF in 2005 (the famous “too much glue” incident), but he had won the race in 2004. Eighteen years ago, in 1996, Belgian Luc Van Lierde came out of nowhere to win the race, setting the course record (which was later broken by Craig Alexander) in his Kona debut.

If history is any indication, the 2014 Ironman Hawaii men’s champion will likely come from the top four men in 2013: winner Frederik Van Lierde (BEL), runner-up Luke McKenzie (AUS), third-place finisher Sebastian Kienle (GER) or fourth-place finisher James Cunnama (RSA). Or perhaps we’ll see a previous champion, like Craig Alexander (AUS) or Pete Jacobs (AUS), break the mold and earn another crown.

RELATED PHOTOS: 2013 Hawaii Ironman Men’s Race

2013 winner: Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)
→ 2012 result: 3rd

2012 winner: Pete Jacobs (AUS)
→ 2011 result: 2nd

2011 winner: Craig Alexander (AUS)
→ 2010 result: 4th

2010 winner: Chris McCormack (AUS)
→ 2009 result: 4th

2009 winner: Craig Alexander (AUS)
→ 2008 result: 1st

2008 winner: Craig Alexander (AUS)
→ 2007 result: 2nd

2007 winner: Chris McCormack (AUS)
→ 2006 result: 2nd

2006 winner: Normann Stadler (GER)
→ 2005 result: DNF (2004 result: 1st)

2005 winner: Faris Al-Sultan (GER)
→ 2004 result: 3rd

2004 winner: Normann Stadler (GER)
→ 2003 result: 4th

2003 winner: Peter Reid (CAN)
→ 2002 result: 2nd

2002 winner: Tim DeBoom (USA)
→ 2001 result: 1st

2001 winner: Tim DeBoom (USA)
→ 2000 result: 2nd

2000 winner: Peter Reid (CAN)
→ 1999 result: 2nd

1999 winner: Luc Van Lierde (BEL)
→ 1998 result: 2nd

1998 winner: Peter Reid (CAN)
→ 1997 result: 4th

1997 winner: Thomas Hellriegel (GER)
→ 1996 result: 2nd

1996 winner: Luc Van Lierde (BEL)
→ 1995 result: Did not race (1996 was his debut in Kona)


http://triathlon.competitor.com/2014/10/race-coverage/kona-trend-mens-winner-top-four-previous-year_106899#sy5Trd2oIlAZHMPU.99


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Coach Brett Sutton’s Kona Predictions
By Brett Sutton Published 5 hours ago

Men’s Race
In the men’s race former Olympic gold medalist, Jan Frodeno, and two-time Olympic medalist Bevan Docherty will both be on the start line and they bring serious athletic class. With solid swims they’ll be at the front of the group, and my pick is that anyone who can run them down from there will be called the winner of the race. To win Kona now you need a solid swim. Last year the Tidal Gods favored the slower swimmers in both the male and female race. If the tides correct themselves I still think the super bikers, such as Marino Vanhoenacker, will struggle during the end of the run. Also, some of the Ironman class acts have had their season interrupted with sickness and injury. Pete Jacobs succumbed to early season fatigue and battled through to qualify, a joke in itself made worse by the fact his efforts were then slammed by WTC CEO Andrew Messick. Sebastian Kienle has had injury woes, James Cunnama is coming back from a big bike crash. So the field is very open once again and ripe for the taking by one of the former short-course boys.


http://triathlon.competitor.com/2014/10/ironman/coach-brett-suttons-kona-predictions_106904

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But you can predict your own winners in
http://www.im-predictions.com/

Submit your Top picks

Starting with IM New Zealand 2014, we are simplifying the predictions for the regular Ironman and Challenge events: We simply ask you to predict the men's and women's podiums. We will offer Top 5 predictions for Challenge Roth and the bigger Regional Championships (Melbourne, Frankfurt and Mont Tremblant), and Top 10 predictions for Kona.

Prizes for the best predictions

You score points based on the odds for each of your correct predictions. We won't be giving out prizes at each individual event, but instead send out prizes at the end of the season. For that, we will take the 12 to 15 predictions with most points for each player. The more races you submit your picks, the better chances your chances will be! We have a preliminary list of prizes, but we're still working with our partners to finalize the list of cool prizes that will be awarded to the best predictions.


http://im-predictions.com/SubmitPicks_Kona.php

my predictions, may be Spain biased !

Men's Picks

Ivan Raña
Eneko Llanos
Victor Del Corral
Faris Al-Sultan
Frederik Van Lierde
Sebastian Kienle
Luke McKenzie
James Cunnama
Craig Alexander
Jan Frodeno


Women's Picks

Mirinda Carfrae
Caroline Steffen
Natascha Badmann
Catriona Morrison
Leanda Cave
Meredith Kessler
Daniela Ryf
Jodie Swallow
Corinne Abraham
Melanie Burke







Name Position Winner Top3 Luke says
Ivan Raña 1st 15 pts 9 pts Raña is a big threat. He put Mt. Tremblant on hold to focus on Kona and he seems to keep getting better every race.. Possible wild card for the win, good top 10 pick


Eneko Llanos 2nd 19 pts 10 pts Llanos has been a bit more quiet this year as he has a new family member.. maybe it will play to his benefit as he has been the best all year the past few years and then a little off his game in Kona... a good top 10 pick, maybe he will be back on the podium

Victor Del Corral 3rd 25 pts 20 pts Victor ripped the sickest back to back wins last November and has been relatively quiet all year other than a nice performance in Nice.. haha A smaller fella and a little slow on the swim, so he will have a hard time being in contention but one of the best runners in the sport so he could make it into the top in that final km's

Faris Al-Sultan 4th 25 pts 16 pts If the wind is a blowing watch out for Faris.. the ex-champ still rips top 10's every year and the worse the conditions the better he is


Frederik Van Lierde 5th 14 pts 5 pts Freddie will be going for a defence and will be dotting all the i's and crossing all the T's to ensure a world class performance

Sebastian Kienle 6th 15 pts 8 pts Kienle keeps getting better and will be one of the few picked to win.. he's been 4th and 3rd... 2nd this year?

Luke McKenzie 7th 25 pts 11 pts Luke took this race by storm and was leading the whole thing last year until Van Lierde ripped by.. he hasn't shown that form this year but maybe he has everything saved up for another big Kona performance

James Cunnama 8th 25 pts 17 pts JC really ripped it last year .. haven't seen much from him this year but a definite top 10 threat again.

Craig Alexander 9th 18 pts 12 pts Crowie is going for it. Apparently he found the motivation to get up for the race despite having 'retired'.. always dangerous but many would doubt if he can still get through the bike in contention at age 41

Jan Frodeno 10th 25 pts 20 pts Frodo is the big question mark.. He has been so dominant a lot will pick him to win and he could, but he could crack as many do in their first round in Kona



https://www.facebook.com/pages/IM-Predictionscom/141785092661587

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slowtchit predictions

2014 Kona Men’s Preview new

Written by: Timothy Carlson Added: Fri Oct 03 2014

As the years go by, the fields at Kona get deeper, faster, more talented – and more subject to the vagaries of weather, injury, luck and fate.While past performances and recent race results can have some bearing on these predictions, there is greater influence exerted by recent health and fitness, the efficacy and training blocs which cannot be monitored as the athletes have been spread all over the globe. This time around, the contenders are listed in order of probability of a win with as much relevant information backing up these choices as possible included in this opinion piece.

As always, I will happily eat crow, admit that I am an idiot and celebrate anyone and everyone who has a great day after being left out of this Ouija board exercise. I might remind outraged fans that being left off this list can have great motivational value and staying a dark horse can serve to lessen any last minute tension.Also, given the impossibility of monitoring all the contenders, we welcome all last minute news of withdrawals, illnesses and other relevant news.Last but not least, we salute those who might have made the race much richer and tougher but succumbed to inevitable bad luck. Dirk Bockel, Peter Robertson and Timo Bracht will be missed.


Frederik Van Lierde, 35, Belgium

The defending champion is not at all as spectacular as his most talented rivals. He does not have the Olympic winning long run stride and speed of 6-foot 4-inch Jan Frodeno – nor does he have Frodeno’s breakaway capable swim speed. He does not have the bike power and speed of Sebastian Kienle when the latest German überbiker is on. Never has Van Lierde posted the blazing fast, 3rd-best-ever Ironman time Ivan Raña scored at Austria. And he certainly does not have the career Kona record of Craig Alexander.

And his 2014 season pales in comparison to his own pre-Kona races in 2013. One year ago, he came to Kona with a win at Abu Dhabi, an impressive win at the rugged hills at Ironman Nice, had a swift late summer win at the unheraladed Deinze half Ironman. Van Lierde wrapped it up at Kona with a carefully calibrated set of splits – a tied-for 3rd-best 51:02 swim, a 4th-best 4:25:35 bike split and a 4th-best men’s marathon of 2:51:18 – topped by women's winner Mirinda Carfrae.

This year he might seem vulnerable with a thinner résumé – 4th at Abu Dhabi, 4th at Aix en Provence 70.3 and one impressive outing – a solid 2nd at Ironman Frankfurt, albeit 5 minutes back of Kienle.

And yet, under the wise guidance of coach, the long-time Kona record holder and not-related Luc van Lierde, Frederik Van Lierde will very likely come perfectly rested and prepared, has proven that he will have a perfectly balanced and executed strategy on the biggest day in the sport. And he will do it without drama and with the calm precision of a master carpenter.


Sebastian Kienle, 31, Germany

Which Sebastian Kienle will show up? Will it be the man who won Ironman Frankfurt over his strongest rivals Frederik Van Lierde and Jan Frodeno? The man whose 4:12:13 bike split crushed Frodeno by 21 minutes and whose 4th-best 2:49:35 run gave back just 6 minutes to Frodo? Or will it be the sorry Seb who could not explain his 18th place finish –including a 14th-best bike split, 7 minutes slower run - at Ironman 70.3 Worlds?

The best measure of his probable Kona day will be last year’s splits: His 54:13 swim started off 3 minutes down, his 4:22:33 bike passé everyone but Andrew Starykowicz and Luke McKenzie and put him into T2 in a virtual tie with Van Lierde. Whereupon Kienle’s 2:58:35 run left him 3rd, 7 minutes off the win. Unless Kienle is still suffering from some secret illness or nagging injury that ruined his Mt. Tremblant race, this will be the blueprint of his Kona day which may fall into a numerically consistent climb from 4th in 2012 to 3rd in 2013 to 2nd this year.

Jan Frodeno, 33, Germany

No less an authority than Brett Sutton notes that Frodeno has the physiology, short course speed, and Olympic pedigree (gold in 2008, 6th in 2012) to join a short list of men (Gordon Haller, Tom Warren, Dave Scott, Luc Van Lierde) who have won this race in their first attempt. How ready is he?

After two years of focus on long course, Frodeno won Wiesbaden 70.3 in 2013, then put the pedal to the metal in 2014 – 1st at 70.3s in Auckland, Oceanside and St. George, 3rd at Ironman Frankfurt behind Sebastian Kienle and Frederik Van Lierde and 2nd to Javier Gomez at the Ironman 70.3 Would Championship. His 70.3 run speed is second to none – he posted a 1:11 at Oceanside, race-best 1:09:12 at St. George, and a second-best 1:10:36 at 70.3 Worlds.

The question is how well has Frodo prepared for the Iron distance? His 3rd place at Frankfurt answered with Kona-worthy splits of 45:39 for the swim, and a race-best 2:43:14 on the run. The big question remains the bike. Despite a lead pack 2:05:05:48 56-miler at Mt. Tremblant, his 4:33:34 at Frankfurt gave away 21 minutes to Kienle and 9 minutes to Van Lierde. Two flats accounted for about 7 minutes of delay, but that still left him 14 minutes off Kienle’s pace.

One good point – Frodeno has not over raced and he has had 5 weeks to recover peak fitness after Mt. Tremblant. He needs to be careful – had to borrow water from Caitlin Snow on one recent long training ride on the Queen K.



Iván Raña, 35, Spain

Plus: Raña placed sixth at Kona last year and posted the day’s second best marathon - 2:47:54. Minus: Raña’s 4:40:34 bike split was 15 minutes slower than Van Lierde and 18 minutes slower than Luke McKenzie and put him out of reach of the podium. Big plus: Raña posted the third-fastest ever men’s Ironman time of 7:48:43 winning Ironman Austria this year. Even better plus: Raña’s Austria bike split was 4:15:48 – right in Kona-winning sweet spot and within seconds of previous Ironman Austria-winning bike splits by Dirk Bockel and Marino Vanhoenacker. Added plus: Raña’s Ironman Austria run was 2:43:43.

Final question: Did Raña expend his best performance of the year three months before Kona?

Timothy O’Donnell, 34, USA

Big question: Will switching coaches from long time mentor Cliff English to Mark Allen pay off with a better Kona finish? After scoring a personal best 5th place and top American finish at the Ironman World Championship last year (where he ran faster than Van Lierde), O’Donnell played it safe with a super-slow Kona validation finish at Ironman Florida late last year. With the decks cleared, T.O. played it cool with wins at the St. Andrews half and St. Croix 70.3, 2nds at Eagleman 70.3 and Brazil 70.3, and 5th places at Olympic distance hits out at Chicago and St. Anthony’s.

The most important factor is O’Donnell is not worn out with an Ironman races and, says coach Allen, O’Donnell has stayed virtually injury- and illness-free and has had a full year of consistent, unbroken training.

Andy Potts, 37, USA

For the past five years, Potts has won a ton of 70.3 races and a few U.S. Ironman crowns and has been the top American at Kona with 7th place finishes in 2008 and 2012. In addition to Ironman 70.3 wins at Calgary and New Orleans, a 6th win at Escape From Alcatraz, and another win at Ironman Coeur d’Alene, Potts did well in his first confrontation with Frodeno this year – a close 2nd to the 2008 Olympic champion at Oceanside 70.3. His second meeting with Frodeno didn’t go so well – he was 5th to Frodeno’s win at St. George.

Presuming he does not want to yield the top U.S. finisher title at Kona to O’Donnell, and he has designs on the podium, Potts has tapered longer than usual for Kona. If he arrives fresh, those dreams could come true.

Nils Frommhold, 28, Germany

After some frustrating years trying to break into the ranks of Germans with enough points to earn starting slots at World Triathlon Series events for Germany, Nils Frommhold went long in 2012. That year he had a 3rd at Challenge Walchsee-Kaiserwinkl and a breakthrough win in 8 hours and 3 minutes at Ironman Arizona. Things went pretty well in 2013 with three 70.3 podiums before his career momentum was broken by a stress fracture. This year Frommhold was older, wider and stayed injury free, putting together a win at Ironman South Africa, a 2nd at Luxembourg 70.3 and what seems to be a second breakthrough – a 2nd at Challenge Roth against one of his toughest fields – 4:39 behind veteran Timo Bracht and ahead of such stalwarts as Eneko llanos, Joe Gambles, James Cunnama and Dirk Bockel.

Marino Vanhoenacker, 38, Belgium

Vanhoenacker seemed to be on an inevitable rise to the top at Ironman Hawaii with a 6th in 2006, a 5th in 2007 and a 3rd in 2010. But since then he has displayed star-quality at other venues – notably his 7:45:58 winning time at Ironman Austria in 2011 where he swam 46:49, biked 4:15:25 and ran a scary-fast 2:39:24 marathon. Then at Kona in 2012, he appeared ready for a coronation when he burst into a 10 minute lead on the bike and held it through 12 miles on the run before he fell behind on his hydration and DNF’d due to heat exhaustion. In 2013, Vanhoenacker was ready for redemption after a 2nd place at Ironman Melbourne to start off the year. But at Ironman Frankfurt he suffered pain from the swim start and slogged through to a finish to validate for Kona. But post-race tests showed he had a stress fracture of the pubic bone and had to postpone his rematch at Kona.

This year he started a bit more tentatively with a 6th at Melbourne, then a 2nd at St. Polten 70.3 behind Eneko Llanos and a win at Luxembourg 70.3 ahead of Nils Frommhold. A late summer win at Ironman Canada in 8:16:10 seems like a confidence booster. But if all had gone well this past year, he wouldn’t be chasing an Ironman finish so close to Kona.


Tyler Butterfield, 31, Bermuda

Butterfield vaulted into international prominence with a 3rd place finish at Abu Dhabi in 2014 and has managed to establish a firm hold on contender status in major events since then. During the rest of 2013, he placed 2nd at 70.3s in Muncie and Calgary, placed 7th at Kona and placed 2nd at Ironman Cozumel. This year he continued his upward trend with a win at Abu Dhabi and a strong 3rd at Ironman France on the tough course at Nice, closing with a Kona-promising 2:49:39 – 7 minutes back of Bart Aernouts of Belgium.



Bart Aernouts, 30, Belgium

After an 8th place finish and a race-best 2:44:03 marathon last year at Kona, this great duathlete seems ready to make a bigger mark at Kona. In 2014, he was 4th at Abu Dhabi, took 2nd at Mallorca 70.3, then won two prestigious races against tough opposition – Ironman France and Wiesbaden 70.3. An 8th at Ironman 70.3 sufficed as a catered speed workout and he should be ready to move up on October 11th.

Craig Alexander, 41, Australia

Crowie called his retirement from Kona a year ago. Nothing left to prove after two Ironman 70.3World titles and 3 Kona wins culminating in 2011 when he finished in 8:03:56 and broke the 15-year-old race record set by Luc Van Lierde. Not to forget a 2nd in 2007 and a 4th in 2010. But back troubles in 2012 left him 12th and then 23rd in his planned farewell to Kona in 2013.

This year he felt better and decided to come back and give Kona a proper finale at age 41. In a limited schedule, he had a few highlights – a win at Geelong 70.3 and 5th at ITU Long Distance Worlds in China a few weeks ago – capped off by a dominating 1:09 split for the final 20k run. The trouble with the 5th place in China was that Crowie was hit by excruciating back pain in the swim and uncomfortable back pain on the ride. Mysteriously, his back came good on the run and he finished with his usual world class speed. Since then, Alexander has been getting major physio treatments on his back and will make a last minute decision if he step to the start line at Kona.

James Cunnama, 32, South Africa

After a sub-8 hour win at Challenge Roth in 2012, Cunnama had a bike crash and two DNFs to start the 2013 season before recovering with a 2nd at Challenge Roth. Another crash at Alpe d’Huez was worrisome, but he gathered himself for an impressive 4th at Kona last year and the South African seemed to be on track for greatness. This year he won South Africa70.3, took a respectable but off-form 5th at Roth then had an off day DNF at Ironman 70.3 Worlds. He has the game to podium, but unless he has recovered from the issues that bothered him at Roth and Mt. Tremblant, looks like he will take a step back at Kona this year.

Pete Jacobs, 32, Australia

From 2010 through 2012, the muscular Australian had an unusual pattern of serious early season physical woes followed by remarkable recoveries and excellent performances at Kona. These bouts of trouble led Jacobs to term himself a “fragile” athlete - but one with remarkable powers of recovery and great good luck with timing. In 2010, he put himself on the map with a 3rd-fastest-ever Kona marathon of 2:41:05 which brought him home 9th. In 2011, Jacobs finished 2nd to Crowie’s record-breaking win with a closing 2:42:29 marathon. In 2012, Jacobs suffered a stress fracture in his foot and back pain due to a pinches nerve in his right hip and glute which left him hobbling through a validating race at Lake Placid 30 minutes behind winner Andy Potts.Whereupon he ran a more balanced race and won the Big One with a closing 2:48 marathon.

In 2013, the script started with his usual troubles - he spent 6 weeks unable to run in March and April due to a series of physical ailments. He started his annual comeback with a gradual improvement – 8th at Honu 70.3and 4th at Cairns 70.3 before a setback at Frankfurt where he had to walk the last 10 kilometers to validate his Kona entry. Not discouraged, he dominated the field at Sunshine Coast 70.3 with a sizzling fast bike and run the day after stomach cramps left him with a tight hip and back and wondering if he should even start that day. Sadly, there was no redemption at Kona as he finished 32nd after a survival slog 3:30:40 marathon.

This year, Jacobs was shocked when Ironman CEO Andrew Messick criticized him as “unprofessional” for another slow validating finish at Ironman Switzerland necessitated by injuries and the KPR qualifying rules. Jacobs took his time before with a well-reasoned reply that took the high road. Jacobs hopes he will be able to fashion another late season recovery to return to the podium or at least the top 10 stage at Kona.



Andreas Raelert, 38, Germany

Historically, Raelert has been the surest bet for the Kona men’s podium since his 2009 debut 3rd place finish. He followed that with 2nd to Chris McCormack in their famous duel in 2010, 3rd in 2011 and 2nd to Pete Jacobs in 2012. Last year, Raelert looked good early with 3rd at Mallorca 70.3, 2nd at Muskoka 70.3and a win at Ironman Austria. But his string of success at Kona was broken by a DNF.

This season, Raelert has had a low profile, not-so-shining record that includes a 3rd at Mallorca, 4th at the Heilbronn half Iron, and a 3rd at Mt. Tremblant 70.3 (not the World Championship).
Can Andy return to the form that brought him a still-standing world Ironman-distance best time of 7:41:33 at Challenge Roth in 2011? There are no signs of that in his races. But the answer lies in how strong and how healthy this 9-time Ironman 70.3 winner and 4-time Ironman victor has been in the final six weeks of training.

Luke McKenzie, 33, Australia

This six-time Ironman winner had a career breakthrough last year with his runner-up finish at Kona where he backed up second-fastest 4:22:27 bike split with a strong 2:57:20 run that left him just 2:50 behind the winner and 4:05 ahead of überbiker Sebastian Kienle.

So far this year, McKenzie has been an illustration of how hard it is to back up a stellar performance at Kona. McKenzie suffered some arm injuries after a pre-race bike crash at Melbourne and had a shocking slow swim, followed by more time lost fixing a slipped helmet strap. After bike time lost he arrived at T2 in 27th place and advanced to 13th at the wire after a sub-3 hour run. Perhaps he was a bit distracted as he and pro Beth Gerdes had their first child Wynne born in May. At Challenge Roth, he had another off form day and finished 10th. Odds are he won’t duplicate his 2nd place finish at Kona. But who knows what some healing rest and uninterrupted training bloc before Kona can do?

Andreas Raelert, 38, Germany

Historically, Raelert has been the surest bet for the Kona men’s podium since his 2009 debut 3rd place finish. He followed that with 2nd to Chris McCormack in their famous duel in 2010, 3rd in 2011 and 2nd to Pete Jacobs in 2012. Last year, Raelert looked good early with 3rd at Mallorca 70.3, 2nd at Muskoka 70.3and a win at Ironman Austria. But his string of success at Kona was broken by a DNF. This season, Raelert has had a low profile, not-so-shining record that includes a 3rd at Mallorca, 4th at the Heilbronn half Iron, and a 3rd at Mt. Tremblant 70.3 (not the World Championship). Can Andy return to the form that brought him a still-standing world Ironman-distance best time of 7:41:33 at Challenge Roth in 2011? There are no signs of that in his races. But the answer lies in how strong and how healthy this 9-time Ironman 70.3 winner and 4-time Ironman victor has been in the final six weeks of training. Luke McKenzie, 33, Australia This six-time Ironman winner had a career breakthrough last year with his runner-up finish at Kona where he backed up second-fastest 4:22:27 bike split with a strong 2:57:20 run that left him just 2:50 behind the winner and 4:05 ahead of überbiker Sebastian Kienle. So far this year, McKenzie has been an illustration of how hard it is to back up a stellar performance at Kona. McKenzie suffered some arm injuries after a pre-race bike crash at Melbourne and had a shocking slow swim, followed by more time lost fixing a slipped helmet strap. After bike time lost he arrived at T2 in 27th place and advanced to 13th at the wire after a sub-3 hour run. Perhaps he was a bit distracted as he and pro Beth Gerdes had their first child Wynne born in May. At Challenge Roth, he had another off form day and finished 10th. Odds are he won’t duplicate his 2nd place finish at Kona. But who knows what some healing rest and uninterrupted training bloc before Kona can do?

Joe Gambles, 32, Australia

Gambles has a silver medal at the 2011 ITU Long Distance World Championship, a bronze at the 2013 Ironman 70.3 Worlds, 10 course records and 15 professional victories including a four-peat at Boulder 70.3 and a win in his 2010 Ironman debut at Wisconsin. This year, Gambles decided to focus on a few key races in the lead-in to Kona. He fought hard but ended up one slot out of the podium at Challenge Roth and was 6th at Ironman 70.3Worlds. While Gambles surely has the game to for a Kona breakthrough, the signs say that his big splash will occur in a coming year.

Michael Weiss, 33, Austria

Weiss seemed ready to explode out of the penalty box after accepting and serving a 2-year ban for a decade-old doping charge. In December 2013, Michi won his first race back at Ironman Cozumel in an impressive 7:55 clocking. So far this year, Weiss has had middling (for him) results – 4th at Challenge Walchsee-Kaiserwinkl, 3rd at St. Polten 70.3, 4th at Ironman Melbourne, and a disappointing 8th at his home country test at Ironman Austria – a race at which he placed 2nd in 2011 in a time of 7:57:39 with a 2:42 marathon.

Without offering any excuses or reasons for his performance at Klagenfurt, we can only guess if this was a significant lack of form or just an off day. If he is to contend, Weiss must find some fast feet to follow on the swim, stick with the lead pack on the bike and save some energy so he can come closer to his 2:42 Ironman PR run than his most recent 2:57:53 at Austria.

TJ Tollakson, 34, USA

The biggest breakthrough of the 2014 season was TJ Tollakson’s smashing win at Ironman Mt. Tremblant where the strong swimmer-cyclist put it all together with a 49:43 swim, a 4:26:55 bike split that put 8 to 10 minutes on his closest pursuers and finished it off with a 2nd best 2:54:21 marathon that gave him an 18:58 minute margin of victory over Daniel Halksworth and 22:14 over no less an adversary than Andreas Raelert.

Tollakson should be a factor in the front pack of the bike with the likes of Andrew Starykowicz, Jan Frodeno, Luke McKenzie and Frederik van Lierde.

Andrew Starykowicz, 33, USA

The man with 4:02 and 4:04 record Ironman bike splits in Florida and the race’s fastest bike split last year at Kona (4:21:50 before fading to 21st on the marathon) is back with a new weapon – his run. While nobody in contention for the win is afraid, Starykowicz did outrun (1:17:27) Tim O’Donnell to win Eagleman 70.3 and did the same to hold off ITU veteran Will Clarke at Puerto Rico 70.3. After his 4:02:17 bike split at IM Florida he did muster a 2:58:18 run that could not stave off Victor Del Coral for the win, but did get him to the finish in 7:55:22. He should be the straw that stirs the drink on any bike breakaway on the Queen K and might crack the top 15 or 20 with a career run day.

Joe Gambles, 32, Australia

Gambles has a silver medal at the 2011 ITU Long Distance World Championship, a bronze at the 2013 Ironman 70.3 Worlds, 10 course records and 15 professional victories including a four-peat at Boulder 70.3 and a win in his 2010 Ironman debut at Wisconsin. This year, Gambles decided to focus on a few key races in the lead-in to Kona. He fought hard but ended up one slot out of the podium at Challenge Roth and was 6th at Ironman 70.3Worlds. While Gambles surely has the game to for a Kona breakthrough, the signs say that his big splash will occur in a coming year. Michael Weiss, 33, Austria Weiss seemed ready to explode out of the penalty box after accepting and serving a 2-year ban for a decade-old doping charge. In December 2013, Michi won his first race back at Ironman Cozumel in an impressive 7:55 clocking. So far this year, Weiss has had middling (for him) results – 4th at Challenge Walchsee-Kaiserwinkl, 3rd at St. Polten 70.3, 4th at Ironman Melbourne, and a disappointing 8th at his home country test at Ironman Austria – a race at which he placed 2nd in 2011 in a time of 7:57:39 with a 2:42 marathon. Without offering any excuses or reasons for his performance at Klagenfurt, we can only guess if this was a significant lack of form or just an off day. If he is to contend, Weiss must find some fast feet to follow on the swim, stick with the lead pack on the bike and save some energy so he can come closer to his 2:42 Ironman PR run than his most recent 2:57:53 at Austria. TJ Tollakson, 34, USA The biggest breakthrough of the 2014 season was TJ Tollakson’s smashing win at Ironman Mt. Tremblant where the strong swimmer-cyclist put it all together with a 49:43 swim, a 4:26:55 bike split that put 8 to 10 minutes on his closest pursuers and finished it off with a 2nd best 2:54:21 marathon that gave him an 18:58 minute margin of victory over Daniel Halksworth and 22:14 over no less an adversary than Andreas Raelert. Tollakson should be a factor in the front pack of the bike with the likes of Andrew Starykowicz, Jan Frodeno, Luke McKenzie and Frederik van Lierde. Andrew Starykowicz, 33, USA The man with 4:02 and 4:04 record Ironman bike splits in Florida and the race’s fastest bike split last year at Kona (4:21:50 before fading to 21st on the marathon) is back with a new weapon – his run. While nobody in contention for the win is afraid, Starykowicz did outrun (1:17:27) Tim O’Donnell to win Eagleman 70.3 and did the same to hold off ITU veteran Will Clarke at Puerto Rico 70.3. After his 4:02:17 bike split at IM Florida he did muster a 2:58:18 run that could not stave off Victor Del Coral for the win, but did get him to the finish in 7:55:22. He should be the straw that stirs the drink on any bike breakaway on the Queen K and might crack the top 15 or 20 with a career run day.

Eneko Llanos, 37, Spain

Llanos had by far the best pre-Kona season in 2013 with a 2nd at Abu Dhabi and wins at Ironman Melbourne and Ironman Frankfurt. But his 11th place 8:32:04 finish at Kona was far off from his 2nd place finish in 2008 and was perhaps a signal that he should save his best for last.

This year he finished 6th at Abu Dhabi thanks to a pre-race cold, beat Vanhoenacker at St. Polten 70.3, and took an average-for-him 3rd at Challenge Roth. You could say that coach Dave Scott has built in more rest for his charge to peak at Kona. Or you might guess that the Spaniard is slipping.

Faris Al-Sultan, 36, Germany

Al-Sultan peaked a decade ago at Kona with a 3rd in 2004, a win in 2005 and a 3rd in 2006. Since then he has won Ironman events in Arizona (2005), Malaysia (2008), Regensburg (2010), Frankfurt (2011) Austria (2012) and Lanzarote (2013). Since then, he has stayed in the picture at Kona with a 5th place in 2012 and a 10th last year. This year he took 3rd at Ironman South Africa, but has largely stayed out of the spotlight.

Marko Albert, 35, Estonia

The Estonian edged into the spotlight with a 2nd at Ironman New Zealand in 2013 and a win at Taupo in 2014. The two-time Olympian signaled that his New Zealand result wasn't a one-hit-wonder as he posted a decent 5th place finish at Ironman Austria which he concluded with a 2:47:50 marathon. Last year, Albert finished 17th at Kona.

Terenzo Bozzone, 29, New Zealand

As a prodigy, Bozzone smashed the course record at Wildflower with a 3:53:43 mark that still stands unchallenged. Since then he has won countless 70.3s in addition to his gold at the 2008 Ironman 70.3 World Championships and silver at 2013 70.3 Worlds. This year, he took 3rd at Ironman New Zealand, 1st at Mandurah 70.3, 3rd at Auckland 70.3, 6th at St. George 70.3 and held on through cramps to take 9th at Ironman 70.3 Worlds.

Still waiting for a strong Kona.



Bevan Docherty, 37, New Zealand

When Bevan Docherty scored a race record 8:15 win at the 2013 edition of Ironman New Zealand, it looked inevitable that the 2004 Olympic silver medalist, 2008 Olympic bronze medalist and 2004 ITU World Champion was on the express train for Kona success. But at his Kona debut stomach issues led to a deeply disappointing DNF. At the start of the 2014 season, Docherty was plagued by a stomach ailment which forced a DNF at Ironman New Zealand and required a consult with several physicians. The answer came in spring and, with proper metabolism restored, he won Ironman Texas in 8:09:36. Since then Docherty has remained under the radar and his Kona prospects remain a mystery.

Ronnie Schildknecht, 36, Switzerland

The 7-time Ironman Switzerland winner had a promising 4th place finish at Kona in 2008 but the best he has done since was 15th in 2010. In 2013, he had wins at Ironman South Africa an Switzerland and a 2nd at South Africa 70.3 This year he seems to have achieved a decent level with a 5th at Abu Dhabi, 4th at Ironman Frankfurt and 2nd at Challenge Kraichgau.

Tim Reed, 29, Australia

Back in 2012, Reed placed 2nd at Ironman New Zealand but since then he has had little experience at the full distance. In 2013, he placed 5th at Ironman 70.3 Worlds and was one of the most consistently excellent half Ironman and 70.3 triathletes -- he won Yeppoon 70.3, Challenge Forster, Huskisson long course and took 2nds at Vineman, Buffalo Springs Lake, Busselton and Cairns 70.3s. In 2014 he stayed on the 70.3 podium track with wins at Vineman and Buffalo Springs Lake and 2nds at Geelong and Cairns, plus a 7th at Ironman 70.3 Worlds.

A mystery man with potential at the Ironman distance.

Paul Matthews, 31, Australia
Matthews signaled he could be a factor in major races with his 2nd place finish 1:12 back of winner Dirk Bockel, at Ironman Melbourne this year. At Boulder 70.3, he took a catered workout 5th place finish but should be all tuned and tapered under mentoring by Craig Alexander.

Richie Cunningham, 41, Australia

Cunningham is a world-class contender at the 70.3 distance, as witnessed by his bronze medal at the 2008 Ironman 70.e World Championship. But after countless podiums at 70.3s like St, Croix, Galveston, Panama City, Oceanside, New Orleans, Laguna Phuket, Austin, Auckland, Boulder, Muskoka and Rev3 events, his only full distance performance was a 2nd place at the inaugural Boulder Ironman this summer.

http://www.slowtwitch.com/Opinion/2014_Kona_Men_s_Preview__4642.html

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